Brexit, refugee crisis and the EU

Brexit and the EU and possible troubled future relationship

Simon Jenkins is reasoning that PM Johnson may have to give in to the EU as he thinks that the UK's fishing industry depends on the EU to survive. However, EU consumers will be angry when fish becomes scares and expensive after EU fishers are no longer allowed to fish in British waters; indeed, the UK's own fish export may even increase. Or the UK may export its fish to the rest of the world. Similar to other farming exports such as lam of which a large part is exported to the EU.

Further, he writes [Quote]

"It may be that one day the EU’s economy so collapses that it really is worth Britain’s while to turn away and seek better deals elsewhere. There is not the remotest sign of that at present."

Really? Does he not read newspapers or watch news programs? Look to the border between Greece and Turkey. Turkey opened its borders with Greece because it's angry the EU (very likely) doesn't keep its promise to pay Turkey sufficient to keep refugees out the EU's borders while Turkey is standing up against Assad to end the war whereby at least 33 soldiers died while Europe only criticises Turkey.

Also Greece complains it hardly receives any support from the EU for the migrant crisis while some years ago Greece received financial help it had to repay with interest, basically ruining the country. May soon the EU decide to drop Greece and shifts its border closer to Brussels until one day Europe's leaders retract in London that is building thousands of flats as if to welcome the wealthy?

Even when not the above scenario, Turkey is sufficiently angry with the EU that it may prefer a deal with the UK that always supported Turkey's request to become an EU member in contrast to other EU members. Similar the UK may decide to reach a deal with Russia that is largely responsible for the Syrian refugee crisis while EU countries suffer due to the Russian blockade after the EU imposed restrictions on Russia's export because Russia took the Crimea after eastern Ukrainians voted to split from eastern Ukraine.

The UK may also reach a trade deal with America, Australia, Brazil and other countries with leaders who put the economy before climate change measures. I'm not sure about New Zealand and Canada. So, UK fish and sheep may continue to be exported to countries outside the EU in case there will be no deal with the EU. We shouldn't underestimate PM Johnson. He promised to leave the EU and he did. He may want to destroy it if needed. Remember journalists, how often were you not wrong these last few years, in the UK and USA? And thus here again you may be wrong.

Refugee crisis

I continue with the refugee crisis and Europe's position towards migrants as another child drowned after people tried to reach Europe as a result of Turkey's decision to open its borders with Greece as it blames the EU of not honouring the 2016 deal between Turkey and the EU. It also seems a military boat tried to sink a boat with migrants. Indeed, in the past European leaders didn't mind sacrificing their own people and those of countries they conquered to achieve its great wealth but refuse even to protect refugees from obvious dictators. And no, I don't like war but the situation is as it is; therefore I say we should at least impose a no fly zone above Syria, the least dangerous solution and as was successfully introduced in northern Iran to protect Kurds from Saddam Hussein's chemical weapons although UN's top diplomat called it illegal as he preferred work for his diplomat instead of actions to protect people.

The sea and oceans are not always calm but can become dangerously violent

I admire many Greek because, as a small country that after WWII was ruled by a military dictatorship to keep communist influence out the country (although the military had supported Hitler) so the people were kept poor, it joined the EU and people profited until the 2008-2009 financial crisis (Greece saved its banks) and subsequent Troika decisions (money given to the country couldn't be used to pay teachers and nurses of whom many even lost their job but instead was given to Greek banks so both banks and country had to repay with interests) impoverished the country and its inhabitants, it still helped migrants while resisted to vote extreme right into power, even while the country has a very large number of refugees that starts to result in troubles.

Now increasing numbers of European politicians and thus no longer only those of extreme right are looking to Australia to introduce its much criticised migration system. But, it exists already: the EU pays Turkey to keep migrants out while Greek islands such as Lesbos already have such camps with the intention to check refugees and spread them over the EU. But, both Turkey and Greece complain the EU doesn't do as agreed and struggle while now Europe pretends that Turkey is playing a game and bargaining with refugees as victims. Therefore, EU, proof you honoured the agreement with Turkey and that you help Greece by showing your book.

Indeed, many people traffickers are not the nicest people as often they are responsible for the dangerous conditions that people try to escape. But, many refugees are also Europe's making. Indeed, it condemns a war in Syria but doesn't do anything, not even enforce a no-fly zone to stop Assad and Russia bomb civilians. If President Obama had done as he said he would, i.e. attack when Assad would cross a red line, i.e. use chemical weapons against its people, and Europe would have agreed, Russia would never have gone to Syria but it did after it saw the West weakness.

And thus now again a refugee crisis because again Assad is allowed to bomb its citizens with the help of Russia. And so Europe will move slowly further to the right. We can almost be sure that after Assad wins the war, European leaders will say Syrian refugees can be sent back. A lesson we learned from the years before WWII: allow that criminal regimes break international laws unpunished because diplomats only talk and be sure bad stuff still comes to you. Now the USA is retreating from the world stage as President Trump (the USA as a whole) is often criticised for anything he does while the President warned Europe to invest in its defense or face consequences. He does as he promised to bring back American soldiers while others didn't succeed. I think the EU is now on its own to proof that its solutions, i.e. talk, work to resolve this crisis. The result are discussions about the use of the army to close Europe's borders and keep refugees away. As if President Trump rules Europe.

Maybe the EU manages the situation. Or it'll have to beg the UK and USA for help and I think they will on condition they can lead. My analysis of the situation.

Does this means the EU is always wrong? No, on many issues it isn't. However, only diplomacy doesn't work and sometimes more is needed such as in Syria's case where a refugee crisis continues because Europe refuges to protect the Syrians against airstrikes and thus Europe moves further in the direction of extreme right solutions that intends to keep Muslims out of Europe. Indeed, war isn't fun but sometimes actions are inevitable to prevent even worse. At this moment and due to its inactivity while criticism for actions other countries undertake, the EU is quickly losing friends and annoying other countries.

But, I'm also hopeful that a large part of the solution comes from many of the younger generation who want a fairer world while many of older generations may instead bring bad solutions into power. They blame refugees while younger generations understand that refugees are not to blame for their situation but the inequality and support of dictators. And the UN should be really stronger in demanding peace and protecting ordinary people from mad leaders.