Russia in Ukraine
- The referendum is accepted by all parties and half the country may or may not split from Ukraine:
- People in East Ukraine say 'yes' to independence. End of story and a large country becomes smaller while the eastern part becomes independent or part of Russia, depending upon the people's will. Russia gains influence and can keep its Black Sea fleet in Crimea although should return Ukraine's fleet but also the West gains as the western part of Ukraine can become part of the EU;
- The eastern part vote against independence and thus remains part of Ukraine while Russia is allowed to continue using its military base in Crimea. Indeed, also Western countries have some bases in other countries that don't belong to their influence such as Cuba. At this moment Russia send soldiers to Crimea because it probably wants to protect its fleet.
- The eastern part vote against independence and Russia can no longer use the port for its fleet in the future. In this scenario, Russia is the determining factor to accept loosing its fleet or not. This is the least likely scenario as Russia is probably allowed to continue using the military sea base, or at least is given time to move as the West doesn't want war.
- The referendum is not accepted by Ukraine and the West but it is by Russia if the outcome suits Russia. Then there are some possibilities:
- More sanctions against Russia when Russia doesn't leave the Crimea but Russia may not mind;
- The NATO agrees that the whole of Ukraine becomes part of the NATO and Russia refuses to leave the Crimea. As a consequence, one country invaded a NATO country and thus, if the NATO does what it promises, war starts against Russia leaving many death although probably Russia will loose as the Western alliance is stronger (Russia has few friends as not many countries trust Russia). The eastern part may rebel against "NATO occupation" and thus an army has to occupy Ukraine that may result in western Ukrainians getting fed up with the Western interference as it didn't bring peace and wealth;
- Russia uses its senses and removes its army from the Crimea as Russia realises it has too few friends to fight against the countries of the West who unite while the West takes Ukraine as a member, therefore expanding its territory. But, because the West doesn't accept the referendum, the eastern part may rebel and try to block the West in Ukraine as much as possible, some may even take weapons against the other part. The elected government in Kiev may have one side of the country against them and thus as in the past, governments are considered as anti Russia and pro Western or anti Western and pro Russia. The country may move further into the direction of civil war as about half the population voted against Ukraine and thus do not accept the "occupation by the West". If civil war erupts, many may die while in the end the country may split and half will go to Russia, almost the same result as when the referendum would have been recognised, except many people died and the Western part of Ukraine may turn away from Europe as the West may be considered as the reason war started. Russia will be the only winner as it will gain influence over eastern Ukraine and maybe even over the whole of Ukraine as Russia returned and thus didn't kill, even when they started the aggression.