Christmas and New Year

For those who might visit my blog, a merry Christmas and a happy New Year. That 2011 might bring you a good health, luck and peace.

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Brexit, refugee crisis and the EU

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Brexit and the EU and possible troubled future relationshipSimon Jenkins is reasoning that PM Johnson may have to give in to the EU as he thinks that the UK's fishing industry depends on the EU to survive. However, EU consumers will be angry when fish becomes scares and expensive after EU fishers are no longer allowed to fish in British waters; indeed, the UK's own fish export may even increase. Or the UK may export its fish to the rest of the world. Similar to other farming exports such as lam of which a large part is exported to the EU.

Further, he writes [Quote]
"It may be that one day the EU’s economy so collapses that it really is worth Britain’s while to turn away and seek better deals elsewhere. There is not the remotest sign of that at present."
Really? Does he not read newspapers or watch news programs? Look to the border between Greece and Turkey. Turkey opened its borders with Greece because it's angry the EU (very likely) doesn't keep its promise …
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(7i) Return to (travel) business in times of a virus

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Economies are restarting, a necessitySocieties are slowly restarting their country, including opening borders so people can travel again. In Belgium shops opened while schools for some students restarted. People can also restart non contact sports. But, we're also reminded to continue to keep a distance from others and to continue washing our hands regularly. 
Unfortunately, for many people this restart comes too late as the economy plummeted worldwide and companies need to fire people or close completely when they couldn't survive two months of inactivity. And, although many people acknowledge this lockdown was necessary, up to 25% of businesses say they won't survive a second lockdown; I also think "Mr Doom" is more realistic when he says that the recovery will be much slower than the IMF thinks it will. And yet, bars and restaurants still can't reopen in Belgium while also tourism that includes travel agencies, airline companies, hotels and others suffers a…
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(20b) Coronavirus statistics: how to present data about cases and mortality

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An article and video to explain the statistics behind the coronavirus deaths but also to record illnesses. Excess mortalityI'm in favour of using excess deaths (excess mortality) as a starting point to determine the severity. Of course, it doesn't need to be only death as the seriousness of something can also be defined as numbers of people who can't perform normal activities as is done for flu or heatwaves. But, as we're in the middle of a coronavirus pandemic that kills, I'll continue with excess mortality i.e. how many people die more compared with the average of the same months in previous years (see figure 1 for explanation). This excess death (and if data is available excess sick) informs quickly whether a day, week, month and year is normal or not. Already this is done in the healthcare sector when GPs and/or hospital doctors notice an increase in patients and thus record the numbers of patients who are very ill or die to know whether a warning should be giv…
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