(12p) Methane and Climate change
Finely, a recent measure suggests that the rise in
C02-levels are now almost under control. Unfortunately, now methane-levels (CH4, an about 20 times more
powerful greenhouse gas than C02 although with a shorter life) is rising at an
alarming speed. They (i.e.
scientists) are wondering why this is happening and where it comes from. Of
course, they have ideas.
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| Chemical formulas of the main greenhouse gasses: (a) water vapor, (b) carbon dioxyde, (c) methane, (d) nitrous oxide and (e) ozone while the group of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) is too large to show. |
Possible origins of increase in methane
First,
they think probably agriculture
is mainly to blame as it produces methane while CO2 is the main component from
burning fossil fuels and thus mainly manmade. Thus, while now the release of
CO2 slows down, the release of CH4 increases. The result may be that many
people will focus attention on animals such as cows and pigs who fart and thus
release organic gasses (as do humans), such as CH4. And thus, some
(many) will insist the numbers of animals need to go down as the reasoning
will be that fewer animals equals less methane production and thus less global
warming. But, as the numbers of people who eat less or no meat are growing and
thus fewer animals need to be kept in captivity (certainly in the West) while increasing
numbers of wild animals face extinction, I doubt that animals are mainly
responsible for this CH4 increase as animals existed over the past millions of
years. And being
vegetarian is healthier, more animal-friendly and sustainable as wool and
milk can be taken almost as long as the animal lives while meat is only short
term.
To
be honest, scientists also consider the fossil
fuel industry, including fracking, oil drilling and some coal mining, as
it seems to release at least a third of the methane. But, although a third is
not a small amount, many people may not blame this industry as much as they may
blame farming as the fossil fuel industry is considered necessary for the
economy while farming is often considered a cost (although keeps us alive). In
addition, as demonstrated over the past millions of years, in general nature is
in balance and thus what is released by one organism is taken up again by
something else unless the balance is disturbed by something like humans burning
the captured fossils with all its consequences although often we blame
everything except ourselves so we do not need to change our own behaviour for
the better. And thus, as it is good for the economy, some
politicians start to convince themselves that fracking is better than
burning oil and coal and thus the way forward while investments in renewables
are considered too expensive but probably result in too little return for
investors when everyone produces their own energy. Oil companies on the other
hand look forward to make deals with whatever politicians in order to be able
to exploit oil and gas fields. But in the end, too much mixing between these
two may bring down the careers of politicians and businesspeople.
The
article also mentions what I think is the main reason for this increase in CH4
although it is a result of the earlier decades long release of CO2: methane released from and
from around the poles, and certainly from the Arctic. Indeed, the CH4
increase is mainly above the northern part of our planet where most land with
vegetation can be found except the pole itself that is mainly frozen water in
contrast to Antarctica where little grows as it is covered with ice. Over the
past years, the Arctic has been warmer than normal, this winter even 20 to 30°C
above its average temperature while the increase is not as significant above
Antarctica although also there ice
melts. This means that at places where it should freeze today, ice
continues to melt as if it is summer and thus, due to the extended high
temperatures, more white (reflective) ice on land and oceans melts so more heat
can be captured by the darker land and water while CO2 and methane, that was
encapsulated in this ice and frozen land can escape. And as CH4 is a powerful
greenhouse gas, warming happens more in the Arctic than Antarctica, resulting
in greater imbalance between the poles while the difference between Arctic and
equator becomes smaller that eventually may cause a knock-on effect that will
be felt all over the planet. A change in temperature seems to be able to shift
the polar winds (such as the polar vortex) as already
happened a few times, bringing extreme weather over certain parts of America
and Europe. In addition, plants grow longer and become larger but eventually
leaves and plants die during the winter. This is then consumed by bacteria
that produce large amounts of the organic greenhouse gasses. And thus,
shocking rice in methane levels, even when it seems CO2 levels are under
control. Here
evidence this is already happening. And as this happens, people
voted for someone who doesn’t seem to believe in climate change and thus already
increased support for the fossil fuel industries, certainly as he appointed
a previous
boss of Exxon Mobil as his Secretary of State (= Minister of Foreign
Affairs who has good relations with president Putin of Russia so this
relationship may benefit the USA such as oil contracts in the Arctic. That
doesn't mean we shouldn't try to have a good relationship with Russia (and
China) on condition we don't ignore for economic benefits our own high
standards on human rights while simply opposing Russia because it is Russia
will also not bring peace - although thinking that someone who bombs hospitals
and schools to keep Assad of Syria in power is good shows bad judgement). But
the brightest are those who (1) oppose climate change agreements so (2) they
can sell oil and gas to places that use money to buy fossil fuels but invest
too little in renewables while (3) locally those
brightest embrace wind power to produce cheap electricity to sell locally
and to other states so they only gain and become wealthier. And thus, while the
Giants gain powers and align or oppose each other, this may be short-lived as
denial of climate change may also accelerate their own fall, unfortunately
bringing down many others with them.
Tipping points
And
thus, climate tipping point after tipping point seems to be breaking as if the
point of no return has been reached: 400
ppm CO2 levels in the atmosphere, smaller areas of land and oceans covered
with ice so more heat is absorbed that further helps to increase earth’s
temperature while summer starts earlier and winter later so at the poles more
ice melts while methane that was trapped in the ground, oceans and ice for
centuries/millenniums is released. But also, plants grow longer and bigger so
more vegetation is broken down to release, again, more methane although more
plants also means more CO2 captured from the air within these plants. And sea
ice that melts probably results in changes in ocean currents as passages are
cleared and because of changes in water temperature. These events have knock-on
effects that can be felt all over our planet, resulting in draughts or
flooding, windless periods followed by fearful storms (and maybe one day a
storm so heavy it seems to be coming from the four corners of the planet, i.e.
north, east, south and west as also climate scientists predict more powerful
storms). Sometimes it even seems as if the numbers of earthquakes are rising;
maybe because melting ice at one place means more water elsewhere that results
in changes in the weight on the earth that causes instability although
earthquakes always happened because of the internal engine of the earth. Let’s
hope the film “An
Inconvenient Truth” by the politician Al Gore was not a warning of what may
come although it was based on scientific models.
And
although many religious extremists claim to deny climate change science,
already religious violence is on the rise in many places because of what people
come to consider as the fulfilment of prophesies - as can be read in many blogs
about religion while even films like Lord of
the Ring, Noah and Avatar refer to end times that is the rise of
a total disregard for our planet although there are those who will try to
protect it. Still, although (religious) people
often blame others (including Gods) for events humans cause so they don’t
need to take responsibility and change behaviour, it may indeed be prophesised
that the change
in climate will strengthen otherwise normal occurring events and this like
“a women in labour”, i.e. with faster occurring tipping points and worsening
events that will affect everyone and everything on this planet, something on
which both scientists and religious people can agree. On the other hand, it is
also prophesised that after the events (let's hope this is correct) humans will
have learned and indeed behave better in the hope that our changed behaviour
will prevent that in future such events happen again although it may go wrong
one last time but then technology and Artificial Intelligence may try to save
the planet. And we need to learn because, although maybe these events may
restore the balance again such as refreshment of the oceans with the melting
ice, this can’t happen again and again: if all ice on the poles and mountains
are gone and we continue to pollute, then there can be no more refreshing. And
when all animals such as elephants and lions are gone, we can only observe them
in films or if we genetically engineer them to return, something we are not yet
able to do.
And
although mainly in Muslim and African countries tensions are high as inequality
is big and a few degrees warmer in hot countries means even more discomfort
while natural resources and food become scarcer so
people fight for the last remaining bits; remember this is not exclusive
for those areas as someone in Norway
murdered almost 80 youngsters because they celebrated a multicultural society
while in the USA a trial decided that a white boy deserves the
death penalty for killing black churchgoers in the hope it would start a race
war; even tensions between and within countries are growing. Worldwide some
people are going mad as they notice that the world they knew is disappearing
and thus people become unsure as they want back the certainties of the past.
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| Imagine a box with thick mud and two identical blocks that are connected with each other are place on it. After some time, they will sink to a certain depth until upward and downward forces are equal so they remain in place. Then press on block A with a certain force and the block will sink while the force will spread throughout the thick mud, moving the mud but also block B will move upwards. As block B is upwards, it will press back and the moment the hand no longer presses block A downwards, block B will slowly sink back into the mud while block A will move upwards, partly because the downward pressure is gone and partly because block B pushes it upwards and this until a new equilibrium is reached (although probably not completely the starting position as the mud is thick). Also the connecting areas will have moved. Now, consider the hand is millions of kilos of ice while the mud is the hot core of the earth and some water between the blocks are oceans. And this ice is melting. |
Other consequences than climate change as a result of the use of fossil fuels
Of course, it is possible these high temperatures are
a one-off and next year all is normal again. Still, even if climate change may
not be real (which would be against the laws of chemistry and physics),
changing from using fossils to other energy forms is beneficial for everyone.
- Oceans,
seas and rivers
Fossil
fuels don’t only cause climate change, they also have many other consequences.
Already it
is advised not to eat too much oily fish during pregnancy as they contain
high levels of mercury. But after the major Deepwater
Horizon oil spill in 2010, an increase in abnormally formed
hearts and other defects in many fish
such as tuna was seen due to the toxins released of which some store in fat
tissue. Also animals get stuck in plastics and die while plastics break down in
oceans into very
small pieces which are then eaten by animals that live in these waters. And
thus, as ocean animals such as tuna and mussels are popular, people eat this
kind of food and the result is that toxins and heavy metals are stored in our
fat from which they are released, even after women stop eating this food during
pregnancy, potentially increasing the numbers of birth defects. Still, other
reasons such as medicines may be blamed. Indeed, pollution always returns in
one way or another. And thus, we may need to become vegetarian to reduce our
intake of toxins (unless vegetables grow on poisonous ground) while
unfortunately we may need the melting of the poles with its consequences to
dilute the toxins in the oceans so animals living in these waters can survive
while now large
numbers start to die as poisonous
and even dead zones occur. And, the more difficult the conditions become for
the fish, the more
likely humans but also predatory fish and births will catch even more fish
so their numbers will further tumble - the circle of death. And thus, we must
try to reduce polluting and exploiting our world and not start to quarrel over
oil and gas fields in the Arctic so we may not only start to fight because of
shortage of food but also because we want more of that what causes our
troubles. But unfortunately, some
people simply are unable to accept change is needed as that means they have
to accept others were right - the article also describes how changes in one
system can enforce changes in other systems. And changes in our behaviour can
help the earth recover: in the 80s, very polluting cars and factories poisoned
the air and resulted in mass death amongst trees due to acid rain until cars
and companies were forced to be cleaner so forests recovered, showing nature
can recuperate although the pollution may one day turn up in the drinking water
from deep below the earth so by that time we will need clean rivers for water.
But acidification and depletion of oxygen in oceans continue as we speak.
- Air
And
people are starting to panic and start to refer to "airpocalypse" in
some places. As mentioned before, changes in the weather give some religious
extremists an opportunity to increase aggression against other religious groups
and innocent bystanders to gain followers as they hope their side will win. But
also, not only do some scientists claim the numbers of animals need to go down
to prevent more climate change or people should be allowed to kill rare animals
for money so this money can be used to preserve other animals, some also claim
that air
pollution in cities is high because of the presence of (certain) trees as
this results in less movement of fresh air. Today, not only in European
places,
but also elsewhere
air quality is down because the change in climate results in changes in the
weather such as airflows that further contribute to bad air. Still, in many
places people start to protest, even in
countries where one needs courage to suit governments while even here
protesters against continuous use of fossil fuels are ridiculed or even arrested
as fear for demonstrations grow while the call of all that is death (oil and
gas, wood, gold, silver, killed animals) but earns large sums of money is
difficult to resist for many.
And
polluted air we inhale is not only bad for our lungs, but we now start to
understand it
even penetrates our brains, causing illnesses (as if we still didn’t know
that we should replace cars that pollute with clean cars). Indeed, when air is
very polluted, people start to complain about pain in lungs and headaches. I
think also microscopic creatures such as fungi and toxoplasmosis are attached
to the polluting particles and thus can penetrate our bodies and cells, making
us feel ill and tired. And thus, air
quality needs to improve, certainly for small children who “breathe in” at the
same height as cars ‘breathe out’. Therefore, support in investments in
cheaper electric cars and a network of chargers is needed, preferably on sun
energy while today the car industry continues to produce "cheap"
fossil fuel-driven cars so people buy them instead of the more expensive
electric ones although the industry probably hopes legislation will one day
force people to buy clean cars that the industry can then continue to sell at
high prices.
And
thus, trees and green areas are needed for clean air but also to relax. An
example is London where decades ago air pollution was very bad and deadly until
trees were planted that filter the air while large parks provide refuse from
busy streets. But maybe blaming trees is an excuse to allow that trees are cut
so space comes available to build wooden so-called "sustainable"
buildings with the argument they may result in cleaner air. And whilst indeed
young growing trees filter CO2 out of the air as they grow, also older trees do
this and are probably better in it because of their seize and thus I
don't believe that some kinds of sustainable buildings are a solution. But
also grasses are needed as they too need CO2 to live and thus parks are
important in cities, not only to have clean air as they remove CO2 from the air
but also so people can relax. Of course, one can argue that less trees are
needed with electric cars (although we can't replace all polluting cars at
ones) but we still need to remove much of the CO2 as planes and in poorer
regions people may continue to pollute while natural fires also produce CO2.
And a look to the most air polluted cities shows they often lack green areas.
Water vapour
Also water vapor is
a greenhouse gas and it seems a major one, although as long as the atmosphere
is in equilibrium I don't think we need to fear it as it even helps to
restore imbalances between regions. Indeed, proof that this gas influences our
atmosphere comes from experience because humid warm air feels very hot as it
holds more energy and because it's more difficult to sweat and thus cool down
our body temperature. But equally, humid cold air feels very cold as the cold
moisture sticks to our bodies and cools us as it removes energy
from our body to increase its temperature. Compare this with a dry atmosphere
that feels more pleasant at the same temperatures. This also influences the
weather as humid air results in rain while dry air not. Further, differences in
temperature and moisture result in winds blowing from high (cold) to low (warm)
pressure regions so warm and cold air and moisture are distributed over the
planet and those differences remain within limits. And of course, it is more complex than the above.
However, when the
system is disturbed, water vapor may have major consequences. Indeed, due to
climate change, it is predicted the earth will warm and thus more water can
evaporate, strengthening the feeling of a warmer world and thus probably making
it more intolerable while warm water helps to create low pressure as the air
above it rises and as a result moisture is sucked into the air where it cools
at high altitude to form clouds. Elsewhere air from high pressure areas move
towards those low pressure regions and a powerful storm may be born. And a
system out of balance can have unforeseen effects as happened in New Zealand
where in the middle of summer places are covered with snow as very warm air
from Australia rises and takes moisture from the ocean up to very high
altitudes before it cools sufficiently to come down as snow. Further, as the
poles warm more than elsewhere (and thus more moisture in the air that may fall
as more snow), differences in temperate between regions may temporarily become
smaller and thus winds may weaken while also the melting of ice results in
changes in water currents. As a result, either unpredictable cold weather may
occur because the polar vortex changes or cold winds may no longer blow to cool
warmer regions, future may tell. Also deforestation results in less cloud formation and rain and thus may further warm these areas with possible
changes in air pressure, resulting in more or less winds. And warmer land means
warmer oceans so more water evaporates into a warmer atmosphere that can hold more
moisture. But whatever happens, sometimes the air will no longer be able to
absorb more water vapour and water will fall down, be it as rain, snow or hail.
Indeed, in normal situations water vapor restores the balance but what when the
system becomes unbalanced? Still, even in a new world the balance will return,
with or without life on it.
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