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Showing posts from May, 2020

(7i) Return to (travel) business in times of a virus

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Economies are restarting, a necessity Societies are slowly restarting their country, including opening borders so people can travel again. In Belgium shops opened while schools for some students restarted. People can also restart non contact sports. But, we're also reminded to continue to keep a distance from others and to continue washing our hands regularly.  Unfortunately, for many people this restart comes too late as the economy plummeted worldwide and companies need to fire people or close completely when they couldn't survive two months of inactivity. And, although many people acknowledge this lockdown was necessary, up to 25% of businesses say they won't survive a second lockdown; I also think " Mr Doom " is more realistic when he says that the recovery will be much slower than the IMF thinks it will. And yet, bars and restaurants still can't reopen in Belgium while also tourism that includes travel agencies, airline companies, hotels and others suffe...

(7h) Example of how companies can grow too fast

Imagine a couple have a restaurant this is busy and thus they decide to employ a waiter. The waiter works hard and makes suggestions to improve the interior and service and the owners agree. The changes result in an increase in turnover and as he is an ambitious person with a strong character and suggests more changes  that the owners reluctantly accept as they are not sure about them but the business flourishes even more and becomes the best restaurant in the town. As he is good, the owners decide to give him more responsibility. After a short time he tells them a second waiter is needed and they agree and make him head of staff. Although this results in an increase in expenditure, they accept this as it allows the owners to have a free day. After a short while and as the restaurant is busy, the main waiter request to hire a second person with knowledge of wines so the restaurant can attract more people who like wine and so increase prices as they are too low for their stan...

(20b) Coronavirus statistics: how to present data about cases and mortality

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An article and video to explain the statistics behind the coronavirus deaths but also to record illnesses.   Excess mortality I'm in favour of using excess deaths (excess mortality) as a starting point to determine the severity. Of course, it doesn't need to be only death as the seriousness of something can also be defined as numbers of people who can't perform normal activities as is done for flu or heatwaves. But, as we're in the middle of a coronavirus pandemic that kills, I'll continue with excess mortality i.e. how many people die more compared with the average of the same months in previous years (see figure 1 for explanation). This excess death (and if data is available excess sick) informs quickly whether a day, week, month and year is normal or not.   Already this is done in the healthcare sector when GPs and/or hospital doctors notice an increase in patients and thus record the numbers of patients who are very ill or die to know whether a warni...